15 August 2011
It seems like we will not move back to a cyclical momentum in the markets for a while given the debt levels in the US and Europe.
The three year anniversary of the Lehman collapse is a month away and on the face of it there seems to have been little progression over the last three years.
We have seen liquidity from sovereign wealth funds waiting to come back into the markets. It seems like now is a good time for this to happen but they haven't been tempted to buy on dips before.
There have been a large number of funds launching this year globally. Asia and Australia have moved out of the financial crisis well but they have concerns that the lack of western growth will impact them. This shouldn't make the different it did in the past as China and India can grow well based on the demands of the growing middle class sector internally. China now has less than 30% of GDP from exports.
I do think significant progress has been made over the last three years. The combination of Lehman and Madoff has made for a more robust system globally with better risk management, less leverage and more accountability.
The macro factors that delay growth momentum are frustrating but the financial systems will be better prepared to protect investors in the long run.